Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) shares have experienced a 15% decline from their peak in July. Despite this recent dip, the stock has still seen a substantial 33.55% gain year-to-date, contrasting with a 6% drop in the broader BSE Sensex.
Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
The prevailing sentiment among analysts remains largely positive. Out of six recommendations issued in August, five have advised either 'Buy' or 'Accumulate' for AGEL stock. Axis Capital recently initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating, setting a 12-month target price of Rs 1,704. Elara Securities suggested 'Accumulate' with a target of Rs 1,502. Macquarie provided the highest street target at Rs 1,800. Bernstein, however, offered an 'Underperform' rating with the lowest target of Rs 1,000.
Axis Capital's Bullish Outlook
Axis Capital highlights AGEL's position as India's leading renewable energy player, boasting 20.1 GW of operational capacity. The firm anticipates a 2.5-fold increase in renewable energy capacity and significant storage additions by FY30. This expansion is projected to boost run-rate EBITDA from Rs 16,100 crore in FY26 to Rs 46,000 crore, aligning with the company's guidance of Rs 55,000-60,000 crore. While acknowledging transmission delays as a key risk, Axis Capital estimates a capital expenditure (capex) requirement of Rs 2.1 lakh crore, expecting it to be fully funded by internal accruals. They predict an improvement in net debt to EBITDA to 4.7 times by FY32.
Emkay Global's Perspective
Emkay Global shares a positive outlook, emphasizing AGEL's strategy to build one of the world's largest renewable and storage platforms. This strategy is supported by a de-risked project pipeline, secure land acquisition, improved grid connectivity, strong operations and maintenance capabilities, and effective capital management. Emkay noted the company's de-risked EBITDA profile, which exhibits minimal market-linked volatility. They also suggested that a robust contractual framework and improving credit profile would facilitate efficient capital deployment and enhance equity returns, with lower interest costs potentially boosting earnings. Emkay Global set a target price of Rs 1,650.