The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained its projection for a below-normal southwest monsoon in 2026, anticipating seasonal rainfall at just 90% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast, released on May 29, 2026, comes with a significant warning: El Niño conditions are highly likely to develop and strengthen throughout the crucial June-September rainfall season, potentially exacerbating concerns over agricultural productivity and food price inflation across the nation.
El Niño's Intensifying Threat
According to the IMD's latest assessment, neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Niño. Climate models indicate a 92% probability of El Niño prevailing during the 2026 monsoon, with its intensity expected to escalate as the season progresses. Forecasters predict weak El Niño conditions in June, evolving to weak-to-moderate intensity in July and August. By September, the phenomenon could reach a moderate-to-strong phase, significantly increasing the likelihood of rainfall deficits across large parts of India.
This projected deficit for 2026 (90% LPA) is more severe than the below-normal monsoon experienced in 2023, which was also an El Niño year and saw rainfall at 94% of the LPA. The deeper anticipated deficit this year raises substantial concerns for the agricultural sector and broader food economy.
Uneven Rainfall Distribution Expected
The IMD's outlook suggests a highly uneven distribution of rainfall across the country. While Northeast India is forecast to receive normal rainfall (94% to 106% of LPA), critical agricultural regions including Central India, Northwest India, and the Southern Peninsula are expected to face below-normal precipitation.
- Monsoon Core Zone: This vital zone, home to many rain-fed farming areas in central and northwest India, is projected to receive less than 94% of the LPA.
- Northwest India: Could see less than 92% of normal rainfall.
- Central India & Southern Peninsula: Also expected to experience below-normal rainfall.
Conversely, some isolated pockets in northwest India, parts of southern India, and adjoining east-central regions might still receive normal to above-normal rainfall, but these will be exceptions to a generally drier trend.
Economic Implications and Food Security
India's economy and food security remain heavily reliant on the southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall. A significant portion of cultivated land lacks assured irrigation, making it vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations.
The forecast of a below-normal monsoon, coupled with a strengthening El Niño, could lead to:
- Disruption in kharif crop sowing.
- Reduced agricultural output.
- Increased pressure on food inflation, adding to existing concerns from global geopolitical tensions.
- Adverse impacts on rural incomes and overall economic activity.
Policymakers, farmers, and markets will be closely monitoring the progress of the 2026 monsoon as its performance will significantly influence India's economic stability and food supply in the coming months.