Indian equity benchmark indices are poised for a cautious opening today, influenced by a significant dip in GIFT Nifty futures. Trading on the NSE International Exchange, GIFT Nifty futures were down 114.20 points, or 0.48 percent, at 23,882.50, signaling a negative start for the domestic market.
Global Cues and Geopolitical Uncertainty
The muted sentiment comes despite gains in the US stock market on Thursday, driven by reports of a potential 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran. While US indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite saw modest increases, the geopolitical landscape remains a key concern for Indian investors.
Asian markets displayed mixed activity in early trading, with Nikkei and KOSPI gaining over 2 percent each, while the Hang Seng index inched higher. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated volatility in global commodities continue to weigh on investor confidence.
Commodity and Currency Movements
- Crude Oil: Brent crude futures fell approximately 50 cents a barrel to $93.17, marking a weekly drop of over 10 percent. Soft crude prices could support a gradual recovery in domestic markets if global energy supply concerns recede.
- US Dollar: The dollar index remained flat at 98.997, heading for a small weekly fall, tracking a retreat in US yields.
- Gold: Gold prices edged higher on Friday, with spot gold up 0.4 percent at $4,512.79 per ounce, as investors assessed the US-Iran ceasefire reports amid inflation concerns.
FII-DII Flows and Market Sentiment
Provisional data from NSE indicates that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks, offloading Rs 1,042.70 crore on Wednesday. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) turned net buyers, injecting Rs 3,821 crore into Indian equities. This divergence highlights a cautious investor sentiment, particularly regarding the fragile US-Iran truce and elevated crude oil prices, which continue to weaken the rupee.
Nifty50 and Sensex Technical Outlook
Technically, the market formed a small candle on daily charts, showing non-directional activity and indecisiveness. The short-term market texture is positive, but a fresh uptrend rally for Nifty50 is anticipated only after a decisive break above 24,000. Post this breakout, Nifty could target 24,200-24,250. On the downside, selling pressure may accelerate below the 20-day SMA or 23,850, potentially retesting 23,700-23,650 levels.
The Sensex continues to face resistance near the 76,200–76,400 zone, where profit booking has emerged. While holding above 75,700, failure to sustain higher levels suggests caution. Immediate support for Sensex is placed around 75,000–75,200, with resistance near 76,400–76,500.
Nifty Bank Outlook
Nifty Bank has moved out of its initial consolidation phase but formed a small-bodied bearish candle, indicating weakness at higher levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a mild correction, suggesting a lack of strong momentum. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is in the 55,200-55,300 zone, with a sustainable move above potentially targeting 55,700 and 56,100.
On the downside, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,400-54,300 zone. Failure to hold above 54,000 could signal an extension of consolidation, with major support at 53,000-52,500.