Foreign affairs expert Sushant Sareen has urged India to begin a process of de-risking from the United States, drawing parallels to its ongoing efforts with China. Sareen's comments come in the wake of the US Senate passing a significant bill that could dramatically alter trade relations.
US Senate Approves Sanctions Bill
On Thursday, the US Senate voted 86-11 to approve the bipartisan Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. This legislation grants the US President the authority to impose 100% tariffs on goods originating from countries identified as among the top five importers of Russian oil and gas.
Currently, the nations falling into this category are China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary, and Slovakia. The bill, which also extends the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 until 2031, aims to penalize countries whose trade in Russian petroleum products is seen as funding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Sareen Sees Permanent Shift in US Policy
Sareen, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, emphasized that India should not view this development as a temporary anomaly. Instead, he characterized it as a signal of a more fundamental and potentially permanent shift in US policy towards India.
"I think India needs to get over that sense that this is a temporary phenomenon. This is signalling a much more permanent kind of a breach," Sareen told news agency ANI, suggesting that a 100% tariff would effectively dismantle the economic relationship.
He further suggested that the US, under President Trump and potentially beyond, could maintain a hostile stance towards India. Sareen referenced a past statement by a US deputy secretary of state, who allegedly said during a visit to India, "We are not going to let India rise, and we won't make the same mistake we made with China."
This is not the first instance of the US imposing tariffs on India over Russian oil imports; former President Trump had previously levied a 25% tariff for similar reasons.
The China Question and India's Response
A key question raised by Sareen is whether the US would apply the same stringent 100% tariffs on China, given its status as a top Russian energy importer. He speculated that such bills often contain "opt-out clauses," allowing the President to waive implementation if it's deemed not to be in America's national interest. Sareen suggested that the US might hesitate to impose such tariffs on China due to potential retaliatory actions.
In light of these developments, Sareen recommended that India consider implementing its own reciprocal measures. He proposed that India could pass a law imposing 100% tariffs on countries trading with Pakistan, complete with its own opt-out clauses, mirroring the US approach to Russia sanctions.