Recent US midterm election results are unlikely to significantly shift America's robust tariff and trade stance towards India, according to leading economists and trade experts. While some anticipate minor flexibility in bilateral trade deal negotiations, the overarching protectionist sentiment shared by both major US political parties suggests continuity in trade policy.
Bipartisan Support for Economic Nationalism
Experts from Emkay Global Financial Services and the Global Trade Research Initiative highlight that the current US administration's tariff policies, including those initiated by President Donald Trump, are deeply rooted and improbable to be fully reversed. Both Democrats and Republicans increasingly favor economic nationalism, domestic manufacturing, and strong supply chains. This bipartisan consensus means that even with a shift in congressional power, the fundamental direction of US trade policy is expected to remain intact.
Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, notes that since Democratic lawmakers also support protective tariffs for local union workers, America’s overall trade posture will largely be maintained. US Presidents will continue to leverage existing powers, such as Section 232 and Section 301, through Executive Orders and USTR rules to apply unilateral trade pressure without requiring extensive congressional approval.
Persistent Tariff Risks and Investigations
India, as the US's largest export market (with shipments reaching $50.81 billion from April–September 2026), faces ongoing tariff-related risks. CareEdge Ratings indicates that no significant tariff relief is expected from the new Congress. Indian goods currently incur normal Most Favored Nation (MFN) duties plus a 10% Section 301 levy, which, like Section 232 and Section 338 actions, is primarily determined by the President.
Key areas of concern for India include potential Section 232 sector tariffs on pharmaceuticals and electronics. Furthermore, the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026" permits tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian crude, a group that includes India. Although an executive waiver was issued, the underlying tail risk persists, especially with a Senate that remains firm on Moscow.
The US Trade Representative's Section 301 investigation against India and 15 other countries concerning excess manufacturing capacities also continues, with the possibility of further tariffs.
Navigating Future Trade Deals
While the urgency for India to secure a trade deal may have lessened, experts suggest that any future negotiations must prioritize India's long-term interests. New Delhi should insist on clear, enforceable reciprocal concessions that are consistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Crucially, any agreement must also grant India full freedom to protect its energy security and development priorities, ensuring that the pressure to announce a deal does not overshadow the need for a truly beneficial outcome.