A new report by the Climate Impact Lab warns that the current Super El Niño, which began in June and is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring, could lead to a staggering 451,000 heat-related deaths worldwide. India is projected to be one of the hardest-hit nations, ranking fourth globally, with over 15,800 additional heat deaths anticipated between September 2026 and February 2027 alone.
This powerful El Niño event is pushing global land temperatures to 1.2°C above normal, creating conditions that resemble those projected for two decades into the future due to climate change. This translates to 44% more extremely hot days than typically expected in a normal year, exposing populations to unprecedented heat before adequate adaptation measures can be implemented.
The devastating impact of these extreme temperatures will be disproportionately felt across the Global South. For India, nearly half of the projected 15,800 additional deaths are expected to occur during the cooler months of December to February, a period usually offering respite from intense heat. The report indicates that the death toll is likely to continue rising into India’s summer months.
Other regions facing severe consequences include the Sahel in Africa, which could see an additional 66,800 deaths, with Nigeria alone accounting for 31,400. Southeast Asia also faces a grim outlook, with 19,400 additional deaths projected across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, alongside 19,300 deaths in Indonesia.
“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome—death,” stated Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab. “This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”
The findings underscore the urgent need for targeted emergency response and resilience efforts in these high-priority regions to mitigate the projected loss of life.