India is bracing for a challenging 2026 monsoon season, with forecasts indicating below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across the subcontinent. The APEC Climate Centre (APCC) released its latest outlook, attributing these adverse conditions to the rapid development of a strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.
According to the APCC's monthly forecast, there is a 99.4% probability that strong El Niño conditions will prevail from July to December 2026. This phenomenon is typically associated with weakened monsoon rainfall and drier periods across India, posing significant concerns for agriculture and water resources.
El Niño's Impact on Rainfall
The climate centre's report highlights a significantly increased risk of deficient rainfall during both the southwest monsoon season (June to September) and the subsequent northeast monsoon period (October to December). “The presence of strong El Niño conditions is likely to lead to a strongly enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall over India from July to September, and an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation from October to December,” the APCC stated.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, a key indicator of the event's strength, is projected to rise from 1.97 degrees Celsius in July to a substantial 3.14 degrees Celsius by December. This suggests a robust and sustained warming trend in the equatorial Pacific, which directly influences global weather patterns, including India's monsoon.
Above-Normal Temperatures Expected
Beyond rainfall deficits, the APCC also anticipates unusually warm conditions across the Indian subcontinent and surrounding oceanic regions. The probability of above-normal temperatures is considered “strongly enhanced” for India and the Indian Ocean during July-September, with elevated chances continuing through October-December.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has corroborated these concerns, noting the transition to El Niño conditions. Most international climate models indicate a 92% probability of El Niño during the upcoming monsoon season, reinforcing the APCC's findings and underscoring the need for preparedness.