While the southwest monsoon has technically progressed into parts of central and eastern India, its overall activity remains unusually subdued. Forecasters indicate that large-scale monsoon showers are unlikely to make a strong comeback soon, with a more meaningful revival anticipated only towards the end of June.
Weak Monsoon Activity Persists
Between June 15 and June 21, meteorologists expect monsoon activity to stay largely inactive, contributing to rainfall deficits already observed in several regions. Instead of widespread downpours, much of the precipitation during this period is likely to come from localised thunderstorms, particularly across southern India.
Regions such as the Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu border and the Eastern Ghats are expected to experience frequent thunderstorm activity. These storms could bring pockets of moderate to heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Advancement vs. Activity
Meteorologists highlight a crucial distinction: monsoon advancement and monsoon activity are not always the same. Although conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into additional parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh over the next four to five days, the atmospheric conditions necessary for widespread, heavy rainfall remain weak.
Gradual Improvement Expected
A gradual improvement in monsoon conditions is forecast for the second half of June. From June 22 to June 28, thunderstorm activity is expected to intensify over interior Karnataka, the Andhra Pradesh-Karnataka border region, southern Tamil Nadu, and the Western Ghats of Kerala. Coastal Kerala and Karnataka, along with the Ghats stretching northward toward Mumbai, should also see a noticeable increase in rainfall, though exceptionally heavy spells are not currently predicted.
A more significant turnaround in the southwest monsoon is suggested by multi-model weather guidance, indicating a revival between June 29 and July 5. Southern Kerala's Western Ghats and the Konkan coast are among the first regions expected to experience stronger monsoon conditions, with the potential for heavy rainfall episodes.
With large parts of the country currently facing rainfall deficits and limited monsoon cloud activity visible via satellite, meteorologists are closely monitoring signs of this anticipated revival. Until then, localised thunderstorms are likely to remain the primary source of significant rainfall across many parts of India, while the monsoon itself remains relatively subdued.