Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPV) is expected to announce a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,810 crore for the September quarter, according to a Bloomberg median estimate from eight analysts. Revenue for the quarter is estimated at Rs 1 lakh crore, based on median projections from 17 analysts, with EBITDA anticipated to reach Rs 6,973 crore.
Domestic Performance Driven by New Launches
Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast domestic passenger vehicle (PV) revenue to increase by 11.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). This growth is attributed to a 10% QoQ rise in sales volume and a 2% QoQ increase in average selling price (ASP), bolstered by recent price hikes and a favorable product mix. MOFSL highlighted that India's PV segment significantly outperformed the industry, achieving a strong 48% year-on-year (YoY) growth, fueled by successful new models like the Sierra and Punch EV.
JLR Navigates Global Headwinds
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), a key arm of TMPV, saw wholesales grow by 25%, recovering from a cyberattack that impacted volumes in the year-ago period. Despite this recovery, JLR continues to face challenges in the Chinese market, which remains weak, and disruptions in the Middle East due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Nomura noted that while Q2FY27 wholesale volumes improved, underlying demand appears soft as retail sales lagged wholesales. The success of new launches and the transition of the Jaguar portfolio remain crucial for JLR's future performance.
Margin Pressures from Commodity Inflation
Despite positive sales trends, TMPV's margins are expected to face significant pressure. MOFSL anticipates a 160 basis points YoY contraction in overall margins, primarily due to escalating commodity prices and an increasing mix of electric vehicles (EVs), which often carry different cost structures. For JLR, commodity inflation is projected to keep margins at 6.3%, representing an 180 bps QoQ decline. ICICI Securities expects standalone PV margins to remain largely flat QoQ at 4.5%, as commodity price inflation is partially offset by price adjustments, reduced marketing expenditures, and other cost-saving initiatives.
Analyst Outlook and Forecasts
ICICI Securities projects TMPV's consolidated profit at Rs 2,006 crore and revenue at Rs 99,914 crore, with overall consolidated revenue growth of 4% QoQ. They also foresee a 50 bps QoQ improvement in JLR's EBITDAM margin. Nomura estimates JLR's Q2 revenue at 6.1 billion pounds, with an average selling price of 74,500 pounds, and EBIT margins for Q2FY27F at 2.6%. The firm forecasts JLR's free cash flow to be breakeven for the quarter.