Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has issued a stark warning to India, stating that Pakistan would consider military action if its national water security is jeopardized by alleged disruptions to the Indus Waters Treaty. Speaking in an ARY News interview, Asif emphasized that water is an integral part of national security.
Pakistan's Warning Amidst Water Crisis
Minister Asif's comments were made in the context of growing concerns over the future flow of rivers governed by the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. He declared, "The moment we feel that our national security — and water is part of our national security — is being threatened, we will go to war against India. Definitely." Asif indicated that Pakistan's government is closely monitoring alleged violations and would consider war if material evidence emerged that India was moving at "alarming speed" to disrupt water supplies.
These remarks followed a broadcast segment featuring India’s Water Minister C. R. Patil, who reportedly claimed that Indus water flow to Pakistan could be halted entirely by June 2028. The program also cited an alleged tender for a tunnel project intended to divert Chenab water towards the Beas basin, alongside sediment-removal work at the Salal power station. However, these specific claims were not independently verified during the interview.
The Indus Waters Treaty and Historical Monitoring
Asif noted Pakistan's historical practice of monitoring Indian projects under the Indus Waters Treaty, including conducting physical inspections. He claimed Pakistani teams had undertaken approximately 115 inspections to examine technical aspects like the height and storage capacity of water infrastructure. Despite this, he acknowledged a lack of recent information regarding developments over the past year.
The minister also expressed skepticism regarding India's capacity to completely contain the Chenab River, recalling past floods where water, debris, and even people were swept across the border. The interviewer countered that complete stoppage wasn't necessary to cause damage, as delayed water releases could disrupt crop cycles and severely impact Pakistan's agriculture.
Crippling Water Shortage Grips Pakistan
The defence minister's warning comes as a crippling water shortage affects nearly one-third of Pakistan's population, particularly across the agricultural heartlands of Sindh and Balochistan. With downstream flows plummeting, local leaders are warning of an impending "economic massacre."
The severity of the crisis is evident around the Sukkur Barrage, a critical lifeline for millions of acres of farmland. Data from Sindh's irrigation department reveals significant deficits: the North West Canal faces a 64.1% shortfall, while the Rice Canal and Dadu Canal report shortages of 38% and 82%, respectively.
Internal Disputes Exacerbate Crisis
Compounding the external tensions, the water crisis is exacerbated by escalating internal conflicts between Pakistan's provinces. Officials in Sindh allege that upstream Punjab is illegally drawing 53,394 cusecs of water against its sanctioned allocation of 44,000 cusecs, an excess of over 21%. Similarly, the Taunsa Barrage is reportedly withdrawing 25,694 cusecs against its 24,000 cusecs limit, intensifying the struggle for dwindling water resources.