Saudi Arabia Seeks New Security Alliances
Saudi Arabia is actively diversifying its security alliances, moving beyond its traditional reliance on the United States. This strategic pivot comes amid growing concerns over Iranian and Houthi threats, coupled with a perceived disappointment in Washington's security commitments. According to Israeli intelligence expert Danny Citrinowicz, Riyadh's frustration has directly led to its recent trilateral defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan.
The NATO-like pact, signed in Mecca on August 7, stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three nations would be considered an attack on all. This landmark agreement aims to bolster collective deterrence against regional aggression, signaling a significant reorientation of Saudi foreign policy.
Divisions Within the Gulf Cooperation Council
Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted during an appearance on CNN's Fareed Zakaria's program that recent conflicts with Iran have exposed deep divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). "This war has exposed that there is no GCC. There are Gulf countries, but they're not united," he stated.
These differing approaches to Iran are evident across the region. While Qatar and some factions within Saudi Arabia advocate for continued engagement with Tehran, believing that "you cannot push Iran into a corner," Bahrain maintains a harder line, favoring expanded pressure on Iran and closer ties with Israel. Citrinowicz also highlighted underlying tensions between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed as contributing factors to this disunity.
US Security Support Under Scrutiny
A primary driver for Saudi Arabia's strategic shift is its re-evaluation of US security support. Citrinowicz emphasized, "The Saudis are quite disappointed, and they're feeling exposed to the Iranian and Houthi threat." This sentiment has been exacerbated by Iran's targeting of US bases and allies, including critical Saudi infrastructure such as Riyadh, Prince Sultan Air Base, and major oil facilities like Ras Tanura and Yanbu.
The attacks have heightened Riyadh's anxieties regarding the protection of its vital assets, prompting a broader diversification of its security arrangements beyond the United States.
Saudi Arabia as a "Swing Voter"
Harvard Professor Tarek Masoud, also part of the CNN discussion, described Saudi Arabia as a "swing voter" within the Gulf, positioned between the more aggressive stances of the UAE and Bahrain and the cautious approaches of Qatar and Oman. Masoud suggested that the Saudi-UAE divide stems less from ideology and more from the US's conduct during the recent conflict.
According to Masoud, Saudi Arabia would have supported a more aggressive US campaign against Iran if Washington had been willing to commit troops and pursue regime change. However, the US's restrained approach has instead pushed Riyadh towards de-escalation and a return to the détente with Iran seen in 2023.
The "Second Best Option"
Professor Masoud characterized the Saudi position as a choice between two primary options: a significant US-led military campaign against Iran or an accommodation with Tehran. He concluded that the latter, while not ideal, represents the "second best option" for Riyadh given the current geopolitical landscape. Despite the new pact, Citrinowicz expressed skepticism about its effectiveness in a true crisis, questioning whether the new partners would genuinely respond collectively to an attack on Saudi Arabia by Iran or its proxies.