Indian markets are set to commence the trading week on a positive note, as indicated by GIFT Nifty futures trading 67.60 points (0.28%) higher at 24,124.50 on the NSE International Exchange. This upward trend reflects a broader positive sentiment filtering in from global markets.
Global Market Cues Influence Domestic Outlook
The positive sentiment stems primarily from signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks, which have eased geopolitical concerns. This development propelled Asian share markets higher on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei gaining over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI rising more than 1%.
US stock markets also closed on a high note Friday, driven by technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.14%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.08%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite soared 1.91%.
In the commodities market, Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $80.17 a barrel, while US crude remained firmer at $77.52 a barrel. Lower crude prices typically offer relief to oil-importing economies like India. Gold prices also saw a bounce, rising 1.1% to $4,205 an ounce, following news of peace talk progress.
FII-DII Activity and Rupee Trajectory
Provisional data from NSE shows Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,859.07 crore on Friday. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 1,159.64 crore. Despite Friday's FPI inflows, foreign investors have pulled out Rs 63,450 crore from Indian equities in June 2026 so far.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted, "In the context of appreciating rupee, FPIs are unlikely to sell significantly, going forward. The concentration risk in investing in a few stocks in South Korea and Taiwan is making FPIs a bit worried."
The Indian rupee's direction this week will largely depend on sustained lower oil prices and the trajectory of the US dollar.
Expert Outlook: Nifty50, Sensex, and Nifty Bank
Analysts offer cautious optimism for the domestic market, advising a balanced approach given global developments and upcoming domestic data releases.
Nifty50 and Sensex
Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, stated that the short-term market outlook remains positive, recommending a 'buy on dips and sell on rallies' strategy. For Nifty, key support zones are identified at 23,850 and 23,750, while resistance levels are between 24,200-24,400. A breach below 23,750 could make the uptrend vulnerable.
For Sensex, immediate resistance is near 77,200, followed by 77,300. The 76,300-76,400 zone is expected to act as strong support. A decisive move above resistance could revive buying interest, while a breach of support might extend the corrective phase, according to Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
India VIX declined 13% last week, settling below 13, which could further support market sentiment, noted Nilesh Jain, VP-Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse.
Nifty Bank
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, observed that Nifty Bank has been consolidating and continues to trade above its key moving averages, indicating strong relative strength. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is in the 58,100-58,200 zone, with a sustainable move above potentially extending towards 58,600 and 59,000. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 57,300-57,200 zone.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted a bullish crossover of the 20-day EMA above its 50-day EMA on daily charts, supporting a positive bias. They suggest using any dips to accumulate quality banking stocks, with key support at 56,000 levels.